Cheap Natural Gas Should Fuel Canada for A Long Time



May 31st, 2010 | File Under : Energy - Natural Gas - Oil and Gas

Two recent reports suggest that the alternative fuel of choice over the next 20 to 30 years won’t be nuclear, coal, oil, wind or solar – but rather,
natural gas.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlighted the fact that, even before the recent discovery of very large so-called “unconventional” reserves not easily recovered, natural gas had a number of clear advantages compared to other sources of energy.

First, compared to other carbon-based fuels such as oil, natural gas produces half the CO2, has none of the waste disposal problems associated with nuclear, and is a far cheaper fuel source for electricity generation than either wind or solar.

According to Amy Myers Jaffe, associate director of the Rice University Energy Program, new technology has dramatically cut shale gas production costs. As a result, massive new reserves of natural gas trapped far underground in shale are now within reach.

While the recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has raised concerns about offshore oil and gas drilling, most recent shale gas deposits have been found on land and are far below the water table.

Until recently, unconventional reserves of natural gas have not been included in the estimates of total natural gas reserves in Canada.

However, according to the Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas, the inclusion of an estimated 1,300 trillion cubic feet TCF of “tight gas” (natural gas in underground reservoirs with low permeability) plus 1,100 TCF of shale gas has increased the estimate of the country’s total natural gas reserves (also referred to as “gas in place” – GIP) by 162% to almost 4,000 TCF.

Applying a recovery factor (i.e. the percentage of the total gas reserves that can be brought to the surface) to the volume of GIP yields the total amount of marketable gas which can be sold after removing impurities.

Based on an overall recovery factor in the range of 15% to 30%, Canada has approximately 1,000 TCF of natural gas, which is enough, based on current domestic usage and exports, to last the country for 100 years.

Clearly, this very full natural gas tank should help keep a lid on natural gas prices in particular, and energy prices in general, for many years to come.

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